The roll-out of grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased. A report by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory summarized trends in the installed cost of grid-connected PV systems in the United States from 1998 through 2008.
Key findings of the analysis are as follows:
• The capacity-weighted average installed cost of systems completed in 2008 – in terms of real 2008 dollars per installed watt (DC-STC)4 and prior to receipt of any direct financial incentives or tax credits – was $7.5/Watt, a decline from $7.8/W in 2007 following several years (2005-2007) during which installed costs remained relatively flat. From 1998 to 2008, installed costs declined by about 3.6% (or $0.3/W) per year, on average, starting from $10.8/W in 1998.
• The decline in installed costs from 2007 to 2008 appears to be attributable largely to a reduction in module costs which fell by approximately $0.5/W from 2007 to 2008. In contrast, the decline in total installed costs from 1998 to 2005 is associated primarily with a reduction in nonmodule
costs (which may include items such as inverters, other balance of systems
hardware, labor, and overhead).
• Long-term reductions in installed cost are most evident for systems ≤100 kW, with systems ≤5 kW exhibiting the largest absolute reduction, from $12.3/W in 1998 to $8.5/W in 2008.
The distribution of installed costs within a given system size range narrowed significantly from 1998 to 2005, with high-cost outliers becoming increasingly infrequent, indicative of a maturing market.
• PV installed costs exhibit significant economies of scale, with systems ≤2 kW completed in 2008 averaging $9.2/W, while 500-750 kW systems averaged $6.5/W (i.e., about 30% less than the smallest systems).
• Component-level cost data indicates that, among systems installed in 2008, module costs averaged $0.7/W less for systems >100 kW than for systems ≤10 kW, while non-module costs differed by less than $0.1/W.
• International experience suggests that greater near-term cost reductions may be possible in the U.S., as the average cost of small residential PV installations in 2008 (excluding sales/value-added tax) in both Japan ($6.9/W) and Germany ($6.1/W) was significantly below that in the U.S. ($7.9/W).
• The new construction market offers cost advantages for residential PV.
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